Workers wanted
The competition for skilled talent hits a new high & new ideas
17 year old Jonathan Lucky sighs. Waiting for his bus to school in Nigeria, the soon to be high school graduate sees yet another email hoping he applies to college in the United States. His parents cannot stop saying how lucky he is that he has so many global opportunities, but he is exhausted at the constant marketing.
It is no secret that the United States, and every country wants workers. The global birth rate is now under 2, falling from 2.7 in the year 2000 and 2.3 in 2023, and surpassing the critical "replacement rate" of 2.1 necessary for population stability. As birth rates decline, every nation is confronted with the urgent need to augment its workforce in order to sustain economic growth and address labor shortages. What may be surprising is the difficulty that countries are having in attracting talent.
The most direct approach has been to attract educated talent from other countries - an increasingly insufficient tactic to grow skilled workers. Over the last decade, the issue of pro-worker immigration policies has become the most pressing concern for countries like China and the United States, which both had a birth rate under 2.0 by 2023.However, with the average age in East and South Asia exceeding 40, the global scarcity of young, educated workers has intensified the competition among nations in attracting skilled migrants.
New Tools
With immigration alone not sufficient, countries are responding by employing diverse tools and strategies to address their labor deficiencies
The first solution is to promote family growth. Thus far, this is not working Tax breaks and increased care subsidies for individuals with children have demonstrated limited effectiveness, as evidenced by Singapore's stagnant birthrates. Private businesses are also reluctant to support more maternity and paternity leaves, as they create issues to manage shifts for companies increasingly strapped for workers.
The second solution has been to educate existing populations. In China, two-thirds of children reside in rural areas and attend substandard schools, while in India, a similar proportion of individuals aged 25 to 34 have not completed upper secondary education. The bet is that augmenting the skills of these young people holds the potential for fostering innovation in otherwise stagnant economies, particularly if they migrate to more developed regions.
Lastly, political rhetoric is turning to “people substitutes", with substantial public investments in artificial intelligence for home healthcare. Politicians promise the elderly they will have the care they need - even if they cannot afford a home health worker.
A Generational Swagger
Today's young students possess an increasing awareness of their own value and harbor confidence that employment opportunities will be available when they are ready to enter the workforce. Rajiv Metha, an 18-year-old student from Chennai, succinctly expresses this sentiment, stating, "I know I can get a job. Honestly, i’m not worried about it.”
As Jonathan waits for his bus, he jokes with his friends. He will soon go to college and be expected to support a graying population like no other generation. Whatever he decides to do, wherever he decides to live, people will be grateful to have him.